2020 Utah Housing Market Forecast

2020 Utah Housing Market Forecast

Last year the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute made some predictions about the direction of the housing market.  Meanwhile, we made our own.   Here is how things turned out:

 

2019 Predictions:

Weber County House Prices

KGPI : +10%

Vesta:  +3%

What Actually Happened: +10.1%

 

Sales Volume

KGPI: +4%

Vesta: -5%

What Actually Happened:  +1.5%

 

Last year we thought that increasing interest rates would put a sag into sales and cap prices somewhat.  Our predictions failed as interest rates surprisingly dropped back to historic lows.

 

This year the housing gurus returned to another NWOAR Forecast Breakfast and laid the data on us thick and heavy.  As sidekick to Jim Woods, Ari Bruening made a pitch for denser housing to help mitigate Utah’s housing shortage.  Here are their presentations:

 

While the shortage in housing is beginning to ease for the first time in 10 years, we have a long way to go to create equilibrium.  Thus KGPI predicts that house prices will increase another 10% this year while sales volume increases again by 4% or 5%.  Our prediction is that, barring a coronavirus world pandemic that culls 4% of the world population, they will likely be right.