STONE HILL: Peak Speculation?

STONE HILL:  Peak Speculation?

The Stone Hill subdivision in Ogden has completed build out. What was once the site of the 1970’s dystopian concrete bunker version of Dee Elementary school is now a new neighborhood of avant-garde two story hamlets. With tile exteriors and geometroid porch awnings, the eclectic construction has been popular among buyers seeking refuge in Ogden’s historic urban center.

Since this project was city sponsored and list prices were derived from both market forces and government administrative rules, a lottery system was used to determine the lucky buyers who would be given an opportunity to purchase the homes. As with all things bureaucratic, the nimbleness of the process was less than spectacular. The magnitude of which may now be revealing itself in the free market as all price restrictions are gone from the neighborhood.

Two weeks ago 2178 Porter Ave. sold to a lucky lottery winner. The owner purchased the home for $457,900 or $239/SQFT. That owner just listed the home for resale for $569,900! That is a mere $112,000 more than they paid two weeks ago. Interestingly, the listing agent has also added about 184 SQFT to the home description that didn’t exist two weeks ago.

This is what we call real estate speculation. It’s a bold and risky move. The question is, will they get their price? Let’s take a look.


Based on the history of sales in the subdivision since construction, it appears the latest trend has seen $/SQFT mushroom skyward.  The last batch of sales was slightly off trend.  You can see the yellow data point denoting the most recent sale of 2178 Porter and the red marker being the current listing.  If the trend were to hold, it appears this speculator may only have to wait a month or two before the market validates their list price.  Fascinating indeed!

It will be interesting to watch other owners in the neighborhood to see if they decide to cash in on this remarkable run up in value.

UPDDATE 10/26/2021: For reasons unknown, this home was taken off market on the 22nd of October.