Browsing Posts From: Research

Last year the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute made some predictions about the direction of the housing market.  Meanwhile, we made our own.   Here is how things turned out:   2019 Predictions: Weber County House Prices KGPI : +10% Vesta:  +3% What Actually Happened: +10.1%   Sales Volume KGPI: +4% Vesta: -5% What Actually Happened:  +1.5%   Last year we thought that increasing interest rates would put a sag into sales and cap prices somewhat.  Our predictions failed as interest rates surprisingly dropped back to historic lows.   This year the housing […]

Watch as we discuss the strange happenings in Northern Utah’s real estate market as mortgage payments are falling faster than house prices are rising. Charts included!    

Weber County home sales growth is a good measure of how the real estate market is performing locally.  For Realtors, this measurement dictates whether being in the business is easy or hard.  During periods of sales growth, agents enjoy a bountiful harvest of sales until word gets out about how easy it is and new agents join the ranks to take their share of the crop.  When sales are shrinking (usually after a period of growth) agents joust with each other for business and work overtime in order to make […]

    One of the perks of a real estate boom is increasing values and improving home equity.  During the Great Recession, many homeowners with mortgages saw their home’s value plummet below the balance they owed on their mortgage.  Being “upside down” on their homes led many owners to short sell or simply give up and let the bank foreclose.  In Utah, time has healed that wound and CoreLogic has come out with new figures showing just how robust Utah’s recovery has continued.   Here you can see that Utah’s […]

The news cycle has been filled with stories of the affordable housing problem we are experiencing here in Utah. The problem is nationwide but there are some unique features to our problems locally. First, a lack of land prevents the continued suburban sprawl that is the hallmark of the last 60 years of Utah’s development. Compounding the problem is that zoning laws in most of Utah’s small municipalities shun higher density housing projects which could alleviate the imbalance of supply and demand for housing.   Despite these macro forces creating […]

Explore the latest market info to answer questions about affordability and the future of Northern Utah house prices with Broker Jeremy Peterson.  

The numbers are in for December as we finally close the book on an interesting 2018.  Numbers for the last month of the year show that the market is beginning to move in a new direction for the first time in 7 years.  But first, lets take a look at the big picture…   This is our long standing historical record for real estate transaction volume in Weber County over the past 22 years.  The gray bars represent monthly sales.  The red line represents the 12 month moving average.  You […]

The Northern Wasatch Association of Realtors recently held its annual Economic Forecast Breakfast at the Davis Conference Center in Layton.  As has happened in previous meetings, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah presented their best guesses as to what would happen in the housing market for 2019.   A couple years ago I attended the summit and they predicted that house prices would go up about 10% for that year.  I didn’t believe them.  But they were right.  House prices did the same thing last […]

Utah’s housing shortage and affordability crises has been making headlines for the past year or so.  In April, I explained why I thought December of 2018 might be the turning point for affordability in the housing market.  At the time, I suggested that home values would top out around $125/SQFT if mortgage rates reached 5.5%.   We aren’t there yet…but we’re close.  Today rates are at 4.87% and homes in Weber County are valued around $123/SQFT.   You can see how those figures, combined with inflation, have shown up in our […]

The real estate market moves in cycles.  For the last several years, many of us in the industry have been waiting for the market to reach its top and then move in a different direction.  The ebb and flow of the market is as natural the sun rising and setting, although, it is much less predictable.  But, despite the difficulty in predicting timing, we can spot signs along the way that tell us what is happening and where we are in the cycle.   Today’s chart shows us that we […]

I recently was invited to present to the Northern Utah Real Estate Investors Association which holds monthly meetings on Ogden, Utah.  To inform our audience, I updated many of my market charts and presented this latest information to the group.  We had a lively discussion and talked about many issues relevant to real estate investors who are seeking to increase their wealth.  

May turned out to be a very interesting month with Northern Utah real estate values declining in Spring in a meaningful way for the first time in 7 years.  Learn more about what is happening in the market and why things might be changing in the future.  

House Prices have been increasing dramatically for a long time now.  Many people are asking when things will change.  I took a deep dive into the market data and came up with some surprising answers.  Check out the video and see if you agree with me on why and when I think a change in our current market dynamics will occur.  

As an experienced real estate investor and real estate broker, the current flip frenzy going on in our market has caused me to worry.  As a proud survivor of the Great Recession (i.e. Great Housing Depression of 2008-2012)  today’s market activity is giving me flashbacks to the crazed buying fever that dominated 2007.   While today’s market is fundamentally much healthier and less risky than it was in 2007,  there are some unhealthy aspects of today’s market that threaten buyers particularly.  The issue at the forefront of my mind right […]

The Ogden real estate market continues to sizzle.  It has been so hot for so long now that memories of a buyer’s market have faded into the realm of myth and legend.  But, seasoned agents like me can tell you, this won’t last forever.  So, when exactly will a change come?  Its anyone’s guess.  In the meantime, we can look at these charts and get a sense for where we are in the market cycle.   This chart shows the average time that a home sits on the market before […]